NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68dbf0a19de95650eb0bfdd63f7c146e5ccd1da09a0b41325ba676eb09850e3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Magic, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed 76ers | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Magic | 59c | 16,814$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed 76ers | 43c | 9,424$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,371.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Magic | 51c | 7,521$3,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835.85 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 56c | 7,127$3,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,973.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic | 51c | 5,002$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.02 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Magic | 59c | 4,766$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.07 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 42c | 4,488$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked 76ers | 44c | 3,318$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.66 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked 76ers | 41c | 3,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 76ers | 41c | 2,889$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Magic | 51c | 2,579$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.28 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Magic | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.19 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 76ers | 42c | 1,548$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed 76ers | 44c | 1,120$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.2 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed 76ers | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed 76ers | 49c | 409$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.93 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers | 41c | 287$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked 76ers | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…9639backed 76ers | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…dd8fbacked 76ers | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed 76ers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b1…f285backed Magic | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a02…7062backed Magic | 54c | 191.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed 76ers | 51c | 173$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed 76ers | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed 76ers | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed 76ers | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Magic | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic | 52c | 42.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc765…51e1backed Magic | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked 76ers | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed 76ers | 50c | 27.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)this page
- Magic vs. 76ers76ers won
- Magic vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)76ers won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)76ers won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)76ers won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.