CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de41d0eec5dbafe16881f944ab99f35f8c5fe8cdb2269bb04ecd50e3ee56363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof NIP, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked HEROIC | 48c | 7,061$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,389.28 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed HEROIC | 25c | 6,302$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.51 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked NIP | 52c | 6,024$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.7 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed NIP | 80c | 5,564$4,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.19 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed HEROIC | 45c | 3,045$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.45 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed HEROIC | 48c | 2,345$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.21 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed NIP | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed NIP | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed NIP | 54c | 1,217$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed HEROIC | 13c | 1,181$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked NIP | 53c | 1,001$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.56 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed HEROIC | 3c | 948$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed HEROIC | 73c | 876.5$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked NIP | 27c | 699.42$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.62 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…0691backed HEROIC | 73c | 684.18$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked NIP | 52c | 595.59$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.88 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked NIP | 66c | 573.03$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.17 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked NIP | 52c | 537.21$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.86 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked HEROIC | 56c | 515.95$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.93 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed HEROIC | 50c | 468$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…9026backed HEROIC | 43c | 340$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…3607backed NIP | 51c | 315$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed NIP | 59c | 263.34$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked HEROIC | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…524bbacked NIP | 77c | 152.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…51c6backed HEROIC | 48c | 145.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked NIP | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed NIP | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed HEROIC | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked NIP | 56c | 90.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed NIP | 39c | 81.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed NIP | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed NIP | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked HEROIC | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…1220backed HEROIC | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…5211backed NIP | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed HEROIC | 51c | 44.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked HEROIC | 48c | 37.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…bdc9backed NIP | 54c | 37.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed NIP | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…479dbacked HEROIC | 55c | 31.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed HEROIC | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed NIP | 52c | 29.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked HEROIC | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed HEROIC | 71c | 26.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e3…e76cbacked HEROIC | 77c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.