Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0df74b5fdb8989f0c336cfa7804d381290476b82cc48afcc2f4380e487bc1711
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 38c | 2,494$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.77 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 990.1$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 580.72$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 512$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 416.06$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 62c | 313.19$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 196.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 171.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 142.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 138.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 121.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 108$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 102.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 50c | 99.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 91.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 38c | 80.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 60c | 69.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 69.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 63.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 54.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 42.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 59c | 41.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 40.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 37.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 52c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 27.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 66c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 67c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.