TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Yakult Brothers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,239 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4089…d9e6backed Yakult Brothers17c6,230$1,089 inLost-$1,088.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Yakult Brothers29c4,109$1,200 inLost-$1,2001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf7…294abacked Xtreme Gaming67c2,542$1,700 inWon+$841.926863.2%43 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Yakult Brothers13c2,538$326 inLost-$326.4416547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Xtreme Gaming71c2,000$1,420 inWon+$58079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Xtreme Gaming80c1,880$1,496 inWon+$384.3496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Yakult Brothers34c1,800$607 inLost-$606.8988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Xtreme Gaming79c1,267$1,000 inWon+$266.9171454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Yakult Brothers14c1,148$156 inLost-$156.241,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Yakult Brothers31c999.98$310 inLost-$309.994443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Xtreme Gaming69c750$518 inWon+$232.550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Yakult Brothers30c485.47$146 inLost-$145.6495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Yakult Brothers10c414.29$40 inLost-$4030356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4f…6407backed Yakult Brothers28c357.14$100 inLost-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Xtreme Gaming68c339.36$230 inWon+$109.3636654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Xtreme Gaming67c288.08$193 inWon+$95.0796245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Yakult Brothers34c287.19$99 inLost-$9932148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ef…840bbacked Xtreme Gaming66c287.19$188 inWon+$999058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Xtreme Gaming69c264.89$183 inWon+$82.3248054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Yakult Brothers10c243.3$24 inLost-$24.3330357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…3068backed Yakult Brothers19c211.11$40 inLost-$408031.3%25 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Xtreme Gaming78c195.97$154 inWon+$42.381,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Yakult Brothers8c167.21$14 inLost-$1418042.8%77 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yakult Brothers18c155.16$28 inLost-$27.771,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Yakult Brothers15c130$20 inLost-$19.543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Xtreme Gaming65c110$71 inWon+$38.61,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Xtreme Gaming62c90.84$56 inWon+$34.521,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c5…b9b6backed Xtreme Gaming68c86.56$59 inWon+$27.562536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Xtreme Gaming69c70$48 inWon+$21.822961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yakult Brothers33c50.58$16 inLost-$16.442,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Yakult Brothers27c50$13 inLost-$13.550444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed Yakult Brothers29c44.83$13 inLost-$1316939.6%67 W · 102 L-15.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed Xtreme Gaming80c29.51$24 inWon+$5.920939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Xtreme Gaming73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.453757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1111…1f86backed Xtreme Gaming80c23.5$19 inWon+$4.7977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91df…fd49backed Xtreme Gaming69c22.17$15 inWon+$6.8714868.9%102 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.