Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c893eca4a3daa42a56539c52398ba433e770adaa6be4e8f93a3f7b09b943c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yakult Brothers | 26c | 17,457$4,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,470 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…c32ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 4,387$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.11 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…8525backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 4,041$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.02 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Yakult Brothers | 28c | 861.97$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.71 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dd…6521backed Xtreme Gaming | 73c | 825.27$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yakult Brothers | 15c | 816.26$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 800.39$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.23 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Xtreme Gaming | 68c | 770$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f3c6backed Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 508.73$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Yakult Brothers | 18c | 447.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Xtreme Gaming | 68c | 441.31$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 406.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Yakult Brothers | 26c | 327.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yakult Brothers | 28c | 308.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Yakult Brothers | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 277.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 273$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 256.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Xtreme Gaming | 71c | 226.72$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 200.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 182.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 174.82$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers | 31c | 162.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yakult Brothers | 21c | 144.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 103.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yakult Brothers | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…40cabacked Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 95.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 59 | 76.3%45 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yakult Brothers | 26c | 87.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Yakult Brothers | 31c | 83.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 67.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakult Brothers | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Xtreme Gaming | 77c | 52.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Xtreme Gaming | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Xtreme Gaming | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…eeb3backed Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…14b9backed Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 38.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…15e0backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…5aabbacked Yakult Brothers | 32c | 36.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.