Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e00b953bc7aec493018754369adcce04fa81fac758e628ad808594c671acdd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 2,031$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.64 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 42c | 1,188$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…c109backed Under | 70c | 1,008$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 20c | 600$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 482.11$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.14 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 76c | 250$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 68c | 146.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Under | 21c | 139.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 136.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…21ebbacked Over | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…5bb5backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 110.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 52c | 105.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 70c | 104.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 25c | 93.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 90.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 20c | 55.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…b59abacked Under | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 54c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 60c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 34c | 31.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Over | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -4.4wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 76c | 22.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…dcaabacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Over | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 77c | 13.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.