Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe955409c28641daddb6837e63620b9734d1cda8ae14207fbdce34ab80b47980e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 868.05$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.58 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 48c | 796.45$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.39 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 52c | 492.18$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 53c | 459$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.27 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 254.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Yes | 53c | 133.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 52c | 106.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 48c | 84.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 54c | 69.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 54c | 48.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 51c | 46.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 48c | 42.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Yes | 52c | 38.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Yes | 52c | 28.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7876…c421backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.