Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c03d79bb06933cd3eba32aefb7c3ae36030f975ba3193a9a8b21572442075ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 4,440$3,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.83 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 33c | 1,499$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.67 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 32c | 1,024$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 34c | 562.65$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 69c | 340.75$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 74c | 266$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 27c | 187.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 67c | 179$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Under | 67c | 147.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Under | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 31c | 124.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 33c | 120.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 99.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Over | 32c | 59.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Over | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Under | 55c | 46.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Over | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 67c | 44.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Under | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 68c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.