MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e05696a63ef7a5f7bb72670e45a64916089b36af98199a6786433b2ca8774c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 13,476$8,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,359.05 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 11,362$4,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,658.42 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 8,275$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,677.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 79c | 5,115$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 2,338$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 1,354$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 1,287$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.91 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 1,135$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 1,000$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 730.05$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 634$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.6 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 439.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 389.76$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.7 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 370.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 370$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 346.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 252.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 199$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 154.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 152$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 115.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…b22fbacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 87.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 69.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 63.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 53.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 46.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…e508backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…1fe9backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 16.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Colorado Rockies | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.