MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe76792ada6eaf40844d96a7ef1c8ce45fb57b0e398cbea05369d1f21996ef39a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,110$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 1,790$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.17 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 1,762$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.89 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over | 61c | 1,652$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.17 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 1,148$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.33 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 1,086$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.21 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 28c | 915$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.41 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 759.56$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 541.18$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 47c | 509.35$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.35 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 442.26$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.93 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 432.36$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 370.4$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 42c | 282.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.57 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 51c | 260$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 50c | 257.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 53c | 254$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 52c | 230.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 214.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 48c | 169$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 53c | 143.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…2b23backed Under | 43c | 138.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 31.6%36 W · 78 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 55c | 138$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…4414backed Under | 11c | 109.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 54c | 90.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 58c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 49c | 69.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…0201backed Under | 54c | 67.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 71c | 63.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 63c | 63.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 51c | 58.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 58c | 55.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Under | 36c | 54.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 43c | 50.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 62c | 48.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 48.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…c58fbacked Under | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…8c35backed Over | 60c | 41.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 53c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…f1c2backed Under | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 50c | 37.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed Over | 44c | 35.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 44c | 34.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 33.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 47c | 32.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 31.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 48c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Over | 40c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcee…7441backed Under | 52c | 20.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 64c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.