Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan vs. Ghana end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e3dd8b91b47984057c6fbb183953434a7b4a9dfdef8fa4af2845daa21037416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 2,476$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.48 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 17c | 1,724$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.7 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,451$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.65 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 18c | 833.85$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 574.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…ed46backed Yes | 19c | 394.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 21c | 386.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 355$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 80c | 347$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 747 | 52.2%390 W · 357 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…358ebacked Yes | 14c | 292.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 19c | 275.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Yes | 17c | 269.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3706…1b99backed Yes | 17c | 257.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 218.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 18c | 149.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f82cbacked Yes | 22c | 145.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 22c | 127.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 45c | 110.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…140ebacked Yes | 19c | 98.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 92.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…2d99backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…8985backed Yes | 20c | 89.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Yes | 13c | 87.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Yes | 18c | 83.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…a6e7backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…5e02backed Yes | 23c | 66.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…dde0backed Yes | 18c | 66.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…487dbacked Yes | 20c | 52.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f45…2149backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan vs. Ghana end in a draw?this page
- Will Ghana win on 2025-11-14?No won
- Will Japan win on 2025-11-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.