Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e5507685cf5893d56946af9caa6366fa0b1ea6f3498ef1cad4227a74e91c63e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastle United FCof Aston Villa FC, Newcastle United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Aston Villa FC | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Aston Villa FC | 21c | 599.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Aston Villa FC | 19c | 515.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Aston Villa FC | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Aston Villa FC | 19c | 350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 345.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC | 12c | 277.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…8417backed Aston Villa FC | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Newcastle United FC | 76c | 198.37$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Aston Villa FC | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…e601backed Aston Villa FC | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Newcastle United FC | 67c | 55.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Aston Villa FC | 33c | 47.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Aston Villa FC | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.