Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8578e6ee732666ac06e5fd94e0abac54b0072cc228c4a7d6dcb3d86a3e93cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 3,350$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.6 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 2,572$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.58 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 77c | 1,891$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 1,642$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.58 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 20c | 1,221$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 20c | 504.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 19c | 313.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 237.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 232$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 75c | 196$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 23c | 173.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 77c | 100.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over | 18c | 60.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Under | 71c | 49.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 23c | 45.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…ded8backed Under | 77c | 45.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 77c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.