Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c76b95d882b835459a95f202cb1c1c47516bdcb2c3e663131408c50cd4a828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf988…f5f6backed Yes | 68c | 2,074$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 1,474$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.98 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 38c | 1,370$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.74 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 29c | 672.39$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.38 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 78c | 639.12$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Yes | 61c | 491.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Yes | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 65c | 309.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…9d8fbacked Yes | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…0fc5backed Yes | 62c | 209.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 28c | 173.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aaa…56b2backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 68c | 150.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb754…5964backed Yes | 78c | 86.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…471fbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Yes | 80c | 80.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 317 | 46.1%146 W · 171 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 38c | 58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…7dcbbacked Yes | 62c | 48.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 35c | 48.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Yes | 64c | 39.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Yes | 75c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 64c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 72c | 28.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 71c | 27.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…6b9ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.