Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b436837f179741bd1b12b64eff452602d94fc8db560015d16510b46e038667f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 6,457$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.26 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 62c | 4,396$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 42c | 2,967$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.23 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,147$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.42 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0039…6bebbacked Over | 61c | 1,991$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 62c | 1,620$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 1,450$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.49 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 74c | 1,442$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.29 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 61c | 1,420$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.8 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 59c | 1,090$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.83 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 67c | 403.6$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 400.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 200 | 54.5%109 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Under | 5c | 399.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 43c | 394.47$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…cc08backed Under | 36c | 362.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Over | 57c | 307.11$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 278.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 38c | 270.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 28c | 228.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 214.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…d79fbacked Over | 58c | 175.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 60c | 167.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 42c | 163$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…8417backed Under | 24c | 147.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 55c | 124$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 257 | 50.2%129 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 58c | 83.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 409 | 42.1%172 W · 237 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 170 | 48.8%83 W · 87 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0a…a693backed Over | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05c…aa9bbacked Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 68c | 51.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 47.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 38c | 42.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 41.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…06e8backed Under | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Over | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Over | 66c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…8797backed Over | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 63c | 26.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…3161backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c255backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.