NBA · resolved market
NBA Playoffs 1st Round: 3 first round upsets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e57cfbee658611d7263e05b7050b46fa5b914a6aa4c1d2a5dca471cf7262564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7e…21f6backed Yes | 41c | 30,856$12,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,650.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…805dbacked No | 59c | 30,856$18,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,650.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes | 32c | 8,771$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.25 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 31c | 1,345$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.21 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,020$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.25 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 37c | 369.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 37c | 320$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 28c | 301.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 279.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked No | 68c | 163.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 59c | 110.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 60c | 88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 42.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 40c | 26.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 186 | 32.3%60 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: 3 first round upsets?this page
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: 4 first round upsets?No won
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: 6 or more first round upsets?No won
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: Less than 3 upsets?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.