NBA · resolved market
NBA Playoffs 1st Round: Less than 3 upsets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20ae0a04ea988346c70bf4968c111661ef35667b19049668340e43d2553fe37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2551…5a18backed Yes | 58c | 28,239$16,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,860.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3b…a338backed No | 42c | 28,239$11,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,860.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…f69dbacked No | 52c | 28,108$14,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,616.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418e…481ebacked Yes | 48c | 28,108$13,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,616.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes | 56c | 6,022$3,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,631.67 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…c0e6backed Yes | 50c | 2,179$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…3122backed Yes | 60c | 803.27$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 27cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 63c | 764$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.12 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.79 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 70c | 580.66$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.91 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 46c | 425.48$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.65 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 401.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.41 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 52c | 320$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 186 | 32.3%60 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 62c | 232.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 24c | 180.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 63c | 159.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…2825backed Yes | 67c | 123.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 37c | 117.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 62c | 104.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 26c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 40c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d8…ccb9backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,198 | 46.8%561 W · 637 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9167…04d4backed Yes | 60c | 49.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb8…f245backed No | 49c | 38.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 62c | 34.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…96fdbacked Yes | 54c | 33.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…0ee1backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…b732backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…46edbacked Yes | 65c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…ce8cbacked Yes | 55c | 23.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecac…204dbacked No | 49c | 21.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: Less than 3 upsets?this page
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: 3 first round upsets?No won
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: 4 first round upsets?No won
- NBA Playoffs 1st Round: 6 or more first round upsets?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.