South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6a09ec3cfb204daaa6f53a7f765c4a6debf9149271671f525085a16b3e3a88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 56c | 4,185$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.33 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 59c | 2,221$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.81 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 2,160$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.18 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 1,639$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.43 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed No | 79c | 1,638$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 21c | 1,434$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.42 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 17c | 974.41$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.91 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 39c | 769.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.73 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed No | 79c | 650.22$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.67 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 21c | 397.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.21 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 30c | 360.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 303.46$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.34 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 65c | 244.06$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 55c | 228.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 188.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…1619backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 148.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 49c | 147.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 36c | 126.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 43c | 118.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 45c | 96.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 36c | 94.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 28c | 90.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 49c | 88.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 21c | 71.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…2920backed Yes | 65c | 65.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 22c | 62.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 45c | 52.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 43c | 51.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 50c | 47.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked No | 43c | 30.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…1b10backed Yes | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yes | 75c | 24.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…7b0fbacked Yes | 54c | 22.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…b686backed No | 70c | 14.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.