Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6b7ce36fdbd9516dd4d29c3dd6c5eb5b4bbf965deb6266ffd589774b13506d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 21c | 314.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 174$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 167.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 70c | 142.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 131.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 130.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 44c | 128.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 120.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 119.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 31c | 109.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 105.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 54c | 101.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 99.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 60c | 87.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 85.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 81.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 34c | 81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 99 | 34.3%34 W · 65 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 72.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 64.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 64.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 59.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 43c | 56.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 57c | 54.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 40c | 47.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 46.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 45.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 40.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 39.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 55c | 36.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…6d99backed Yes | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 55c | 32.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 28.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 231 | 30.7%71 W · 160 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 24.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 23.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 21.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed No | 60c | 19.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 17.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.