Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668818ef0edc005d8e7a176451aad6be2b5b9d093d184693b68061cf54007776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 0c | 10,069$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 551.02$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.87 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 245.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 189$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 28c | 139.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 126.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 61c | 126.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 122.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 112.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 105.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 103$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…0e7bbacked Yes | 75c | 101.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 95.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 23c | 94.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 99 | 34.3%34 W · 65 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 44c | 94.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 90.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…f53bbacked Yes | 30c | 87.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 73c | 83.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 82.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 82.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 74.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 69c | 70.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -21.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 50c | 70.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 79c | 62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 123 | 65.9%81 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 55.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 75c | 53.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 51c | 53.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 48.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 42.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 40.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 38.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 38.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 35.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 35.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 40c | 32.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 69c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 24.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 23.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 18.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8d5backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 69c | 15.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.