Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e86e8b85fa615e154cce30037b3ed418f71659b9dc49ad9bbfb409150163ef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 31c | 301$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 232.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 217.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 181.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 33c | 169.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 149.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 146.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 26c | 145.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 143.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 134.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…3980backed No | 78c | 127.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 123.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…91e6backed Yes | 46c | 112.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 111.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 95.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…acbcbacked Yes | 36c | 82.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 77.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 67c | 75.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 73.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 24c | 60.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 56.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 51.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 51.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 49.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 29c | 47.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 47.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 42.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…4030backed Yes | 31c | 41.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 41.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 29c | 35.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 30.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked No | 78c | 26.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 68c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 21.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 19.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.