Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f13552dd1f2be4d16d27948afbd7062390909e0d3daa654c3faf140d9d1e157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 179.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 35c | 167.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 152.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 42c | 118.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 117$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 106.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 104.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 92.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 91.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 82.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 80.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 59c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed Yes | 38c | 71.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 66.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 44c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 53.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 49.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 45.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 49c | 43.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 42.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 42.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 42.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 65c | 37.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…7d94backed Yes | 40c | 35.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 60c | 33.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 60c | 32.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 29.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 59c | 28.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…0eebbacked Yes | 68c | 27.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 55c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 60c | 19.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 59c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 57c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 56c | 17.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 68c | 17.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.