World Politics · resolved market
Will Labour win 450 or more seats in the next UK Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e923e93a9174928f1de00c93969b45e2215beb9823ac26e0640b5786d2bbe6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 25c | 8,116$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 37c | 3,801$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.57 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 44c | 3,609$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 20c | 2,971$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.81 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 52c | 2,910$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.98 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked No | 75c | 2,300$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 41c | 2,189$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 49c | 1,066$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.34 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 77c | 880.94$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.14 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 39c | 790$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 73c | 469.18$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 41c | 448.54$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…d523backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 41c | 194.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 42c | 177.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 16c | 109$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 72c | 100.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…f28fbacked Yes | 49c | 97.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…ec6dbacked No | 63c | 86.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 65c | 78.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…f8a3backed No | 73c | 50.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…6533backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…e3b7backed Yes | 59c | 42.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079d…26b9backed Yes | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…0f82backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7e…ad4dbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…33f1backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Labour win 450 or more seats in the next UK Election?this page
- Will Labour win 325-349 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win 350-374 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win 375-399 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win 400-424 seats in the next UK Election?Yes won
- Will Labour win 425-449 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win less than 325 seats in the next UK Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.