World Politics · resolved market
Will Labour win 425-449 seats in the next UK Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd78bff1135e34b3fd059f432f529d1e48c44e0f528286e1aa7b66674e8fa1fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 27c | 3,455$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.24 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,356$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.45 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 34c | 2,168$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 66c | 1,966$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 70c | 578$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 31c | 261$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 20c | 168.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 126$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…0b7bbacked Yes | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…dd59backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 65c | 58.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…e3b7backed Yes | 30c | 50.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 43c | 37.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Labour win 425-449 seats in the next UK Election?this page
- Will Labour win 325-349 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win 350-374 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win 375-399 seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win 400-424 seats in the next UK Election?Yes won
- Will Labour win 450 or more seats in the next UK Election?No won
- Will Labour win less than 325 seats in the next UK Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.