MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e92690249dd4adcec868340c27dd6e3063a4b670833e2284cc48a959d1b4382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 63c | 1,320$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 37c | 946$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.02 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 64c | 625.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.03 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 581$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.12 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 36c | 580.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 500.14$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 32c | 393$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 53c | 346.7$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 24c | 248$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 62c | 230.6$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…f325backed Under | 63c | 218.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…3325backed Under | 65c | 211.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 206$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 198.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 166.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…14ebbacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 58c | 139.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 40c | 95.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Under | 62c | 85.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 47c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 47c | 68.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 59c | 29.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 26.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 54c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 59c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.