MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8c706287b7d7ccc3c9b86850ef5f8444818e6a66cdb55ada1af3b2db15d72a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5234…4c4fbacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under | 50c | 8,880$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 1,388$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 3c | 1,302$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 1,080$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 1,037$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 656.38$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 34c | 540.54$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.14 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Under | 49c | 506.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Under | 53c | 499.96$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 426.4$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 24c | 392$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed Under | 16c | 384.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 37c | 349.29$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 274$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 192.72$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 52c | 169.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Over | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 46c | 103.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 68c | 96.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 65c | 75.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 47c | 73.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 33c | 62.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 79c | 56.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 53c | 55.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 53.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 46.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 34c | 42.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 66c | 42.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Over | 50c | 37.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 43c | 37.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ba26backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.