TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,273 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c10,000$3,600 inLost-$3,599.9960451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Philadelphia Phillies64c8,370$5,357 inWon+$3,013.212247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates35c3,120$1,092 inLost-$1,092.0114340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Philadelphia Phillies65c2,000$1,300 inWon+$70055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c1,300$468 inLost-$46816644.6%74 W · 92 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies64c915.32$583 inWon+$332.524,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies64c842.21$539 inWon+$303.1312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies64c781.4$499 inWon+$281.933,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies65c600$387 inWon+$2136,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies64c550.63$352 inWon+$198.234,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Philadelphia Phillies64c417.19$267 inWon+$150.192857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies64c335$214 inWon+$120.62,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87f7…be90backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c302.08$112 inLost-$111.77825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates37c216.22$80 inLost-$8079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates36c142.08$51 inLost-$51.152,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c135.14$50 inLost-$5056946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Philadelphia Phillies66c125.67$83 inWon+$42.7357548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates34c124.29$42 inLost-$42.265,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Pittsburgh Pirates35c112.98$40 inLost-$39.891,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Pittsburgh Pirates35c100.77$35 inLost-$35.274755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c100$36 inLost-$3668942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Philadelphia Phillies65c76.92$50 inWon+$26.9230452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Philadelphia Phillies65c70$46 inWon+$24.516553.3%88 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies70c61.26$43 inWon+$18.3810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Pittsburgh Pirates30c56$17 inLost-$16.831038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c54.05$20 inLost-$2034843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies67c50$34 inWon+$16.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Philadelphia Phillies63c44.05$28 inWon+$16.356851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Philadelphia Phillies65c38.46$25 inWon+$13.4613743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x648d…0ebdbacked Philadelphia Phillies65c30.77$20 inWon+$10.7712864.1%82 W · 46 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Philadelphia Phillies65c25.63$17 inWon+$8.9744648.7%217 W · 229 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies74c25$18 inWon+$6.5846854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies74c25$18 inWon+$6.5872154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Philadelphia Phillies65c20$13 inWon+$739850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.