Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ea5139ce44545c3b2c17b6f72cf6c33ff1584937753102d9b25f8d750817b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $545,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $711,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 66c | 268,335$176,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176,644.73 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 29c | 183,097$52,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130,339.09 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Yes | 11c | 11,046$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 25c | 6,956$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,221.75 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 25c | 5,325$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000.25 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 5,050$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.5 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 3,909$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.68 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,474$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 7c | 2,509$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.64 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,159$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 54c | 2,110$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc63c…afbcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…bca4backed No | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 1,181$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 6c | 942.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 10c | 798$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Yes | 8c | 640$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 45c | 580.59$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 9c | 528.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 10c | 500.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 10c | 321.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61d…1ab7backed Yes | 9c | 244.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 10c | 210.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…41a3backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 8c | 161.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed Yes | 10c | 160.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…dfaabacked Yes | 11c | 159.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d55…6014backed Yes | 11c | 134.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…c457backed Yes | 62c | 79.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 24c | 59.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.