Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662eb094ed441412db7c9b05edae8026ceb86455037d58362eff75768b367d4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $279,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 72c | 132,509$94,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,913.65 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 26c | 59,624$15,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,237.6 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 19c | 15,035$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,226.91 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Yes | 16c | 6,875$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 19c | 2,641$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.88 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 49c | 2,238$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.65 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 19c | 2,055$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.55 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 1c | 1,364$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 55c | 1,161$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.57 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 12c | 931.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 19c | 593$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.33 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 13c | 520.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 7c | 455.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Yes | 13c | 400.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 14c | 395.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed Yes | 15c | 287.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes | 13c | 281.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 10c | 196.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 41c | 187.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 16c | 157.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…c457backed Yes | 47c | 117.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 16c | 101$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 19c | 89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee6…0f25backed Yes | 16c | 74.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…8297backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.