Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ec8e2f66876f5cef0dd3cdf0fa998cb7f70b0f2ec0682c66eb28753c385167b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 60c | 283.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 241.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 236.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 40c | 228.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 223.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 13c | 199$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 177.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 174$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 164.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 150$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 132.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 35c | 132$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 47c | 131.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 100.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 93.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 77.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 74.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 70.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 69.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 69.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 48c | 69.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 35c | 58.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 33c | 55.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 58c | 49.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 59c | 48.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 46.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 47c | 43.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 55c | 43.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…4246backed No | 80c | 41.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 37.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 36.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 30.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 53c | 29.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 49c | 29.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 52c | 28.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 28.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…e41cbacked Yes | 59c | 26.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 48c | 24.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 71c | 22.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 57c | 21.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 64c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…102ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.