Champions League · resolved market
Will Napoli vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef4868e7cc60a37978bf2e80230cc2ae2c29fc8bc14db4a967f7aff0a1ddeea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa409…b250backed Yes | 27c | 10,002$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9467…fc3ebacked No | 73c | 10,002$7,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 4,876$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.07 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 4,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked No | 72c | 3,642$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.92 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,940$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.16 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 27c | 1,300$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.48 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 16c | 1,011$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 798.12$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 28c | 750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…15d4backed No | 72c | 660.97$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 64c | 625$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 616$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 79c | 459.03$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 29c | 375$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 27c | 366.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 362.63$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked No | 71c | 350$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +125%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 19c | 304$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 45c | 270$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 31c | 218$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 57c | 173.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 28c | 173.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 72c | 173.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 26c | 134.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed No | 74c | 134.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 22c | 130.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 74c | 106.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 27c | 100.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 57c | 93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 73c | 92.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…f769backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed Yes | 27c | 54.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…699bbacked No | 72c | 46.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 27c | 42.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 51c | 41.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 73c | 34.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?this page
- Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.