Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3b02928225924cb83ed5af59e60060fe333569b01302395a4233234ea67275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 3,200$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.52 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,708$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.92 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 21c | 2,197$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.26 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 78c | 2,100$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.87 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 76c | 2,058$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.53 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 21c | 1,935$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.4 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 1,925$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.38 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 75c | 1,600$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,591$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.3 | 2,101 | 43.6%917 W · 1,184 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 76c | 1,111$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.64 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 77c | 1,045$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 990.11$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.79 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 76c | 946.84$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.9 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 942.11$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 77c | 925.44$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 24c | 922.17$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.32 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…cd41backed Yes | 18c | 605.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 24c | 587.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 22c | 499.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 292 | 38%111 W · 181 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 25c | 480$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 23c | 425.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 76c | 405.65$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 23c | 399.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 20c | 375$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 77c | 373.34$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 346.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…6a00backed No | 78c | 287.18$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 18c | 254$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 75c | 233.28$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked No | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 75c | 199.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 77c | 182$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…0c8bbacked Yes | 22c | 173.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…24e8backed Yes | 25c | 161$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 21c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee99…80e6backed No | 76c | 118$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…10efbacked Yes | 26c | 109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…bfaebacked Yes | 24c | 105.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…1c07backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 78c | 90.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…83c8backed No | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…8328backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…6d6abacked No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…be58backed No | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…b3ddbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df2…eab2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 293 | 34.5%101 W · 192 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 78c | 42.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…ae13backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd122…11e0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc897…9e6cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…7c8fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…0be1backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…09b0backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…5aacbacked No | 77c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-01?this page
- Will Napoli vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?No won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.