CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f09264c8c58919762d1d4c57e14ddbda889fad98df3ff7d3e62678c756617e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2of Natus Vincere, G2
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked G2 | 63c | 3,171$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.68 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…4201backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 2,549$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 1,566$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.71 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 1,201$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.2 | 242 | 33.9%82 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed G2 | 65c | 386.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked G2 | 62c | 277.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…717ebacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 243.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 169.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked G2 | 63c | 144.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…9517backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed G2 | 63c | 36.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed G2 | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked G2 | 54c | 35.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked G2 | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3G2 won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 WinnerG2 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)G2 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.