CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c65c7a7ed64d23e4cdaced06b817b6eef895fc47f787e3e88f8d234b1af0d5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f1a…bc89backed Over | 52c | 805.96$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 50c | 794.84$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.42 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…a7babacked Under | 51c | 404.12$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 50c | 110.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…36c6backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3b51backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…cce2backed Over | 50c | 96.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Under | 48c | 95.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Over | 50c | 81.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46c…3939backed Under | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 224 | 60.7%136 W · 88 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3G2 won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 WinnerG2 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)G2 won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)G2 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.