Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f2c50149041324852eabb852f46d029a10d670570c12c27950547a60c7f5c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 2c | 2,808$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…7318backed Yes | 36c | 419.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 5c | 411.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 38c | 341.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.53 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 338.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 64c | 326.51$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.69 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 60c | 316.86$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 366 | 57.4%210 W · 156 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 288.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 63c | 278.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 195.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 36c | 189.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 182.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 64c | 149.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 64c | 131.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 153 | 39.2%60 W · 93 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 118.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 28c | 111.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 62c | 87.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 81.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 34c | 77.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 38c | 74.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 66c | 70.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 68.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 66c | 67.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 64.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 31c | 60.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 37c | 58.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 56.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 42c | 53.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 64c | 53.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Yes | 39c | 45.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 40.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed Yes | 67c | 38.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 63c | 38.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 27c | 37.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 37.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 64c | 36.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 71c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 29c | 35.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…79ebbacked Yes | 30c | 33.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 38c | 33.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 63c | 30.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 26.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 26.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x694e…d4a5backed Yes | 72c | 24.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 64c | 22.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 71c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 61c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 66c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.