South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f536944a97fdf84d82e0644da495d55e7f8f8d4028f23ce6fb94c3454fa54e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 38c | 25,000$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 62c | 24,864$15,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,448.32 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 40c | 5,809$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.53 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 64c | 5,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 37c | 3,058$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.74 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 2,313$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.53 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 37c | 947.68$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 40c | 560$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…b641backed No | 65c | 550$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…a793backed Yes | 37c | 550$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 78c | 433.9$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 42c | 358.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 59c | 348.81$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 8c | 346.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 61c | 336.41$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.37 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 38c | 250.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 36c | 233.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 60c | 224.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 37c | 179.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd4…7ab4backed Yes | 42c | 117.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes | 13c | 103.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 62c | 66.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 60c | 51.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a83…9516backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…6654backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…49b1backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-16?this page
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.