South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1b8b63216293f86e7d5477cc38183c8896f34bf3589dc28375dac4b9aaa1c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 30c | 17,472$5,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,299.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 11,931$7,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,900.58 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 70c | 7,944$5,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,552.51 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 67c | 3,515$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.05 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 28c | 3,466$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,486.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 3,145$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.73 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 2,772$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.63 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 74c | 2,382$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…ab96backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 72c | 1,226$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.72 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 68c | 1,109$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.86 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 872.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.22 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 71c | 707.21$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.27 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 30c | 690$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.23 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 63c | 671.09$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.99 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 63c | 640.41$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.15 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 28c | 587.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…4ea0backed Yes | 33c | 280$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 72c | 217$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 29c | 201.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb29c…8f19backed Yes | 29c | 191.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…06cbbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 32c | 171.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…d8a7backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…abcdbacked Yes | 64c | 128.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0e9fbacked Yes | 67c | 120.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 29c | 115.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…8929backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 55c | 78.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd906…428dbacked No | 74c | 76.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 75.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…fd01backed Yes | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…4fc0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 54c | 49.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…3643backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96e…e5b5backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…30ddbacked No | 74c | 33.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…631cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 72c | 22.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…b68ebacked Yes | 66c | 20.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…1f48backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee5…a679backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…6dd1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-16?this page
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.