Europa Conference League · resolved market
KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5473654c8193308fa93991173b71c622b5dfd3dd440b4922ebf21c7295e0b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 13c | 2,840$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464.77 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed Under | 4c | 1,803$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 1,135$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.62 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 18c | 743.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 727.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.3 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 717.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.44 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 18c | 647.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 561.61$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.46 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 73c | 547.95$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 77c | 507.26$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 11c | 448.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Over | 77c | 259.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 20c | 176$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 23c | 105.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed Under | 26c | 92.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…6bd7backed Over | 72c | 80.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 20c | 72.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 72c | 68.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 66c | 41.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 25c | 41.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 67c | 40.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 70c | 38.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 72c | 23.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Over | 72c | 13.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5this page
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 5.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)FC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.