Europa Conference League · resolved market
KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc529b1585c90bebfb434c7edfb1a4bf70ae5d5c6f7c844801ea13c07a6fe2b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 13,119$7,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,772.42 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 44c | 12,668$5,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,573.84 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…4a10backed Under | 3c | 2,780$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 44c | 1,957$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.78 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Over | 56c | 1,226$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.88 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 44c | 1,078$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.49 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed Under | 26c | 777.19$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.15 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 499.07$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.38 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 57c | 485.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 46c | 434.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 379.15$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 44c | 289.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 67c | 280.08$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 263.61$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 56c | 259.56$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 196.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 56c | 176.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…825cbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 47c | 74.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 76c | 65.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 44c | 63.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 44c | 29.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 70c | 27.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 66c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…307abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5this page
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 5.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)FC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.