Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ba1a99755e9a8e504656cff42aef07b8d27d2c0528188dbc2400a0fe034aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Luganoof FC Lugano, KF Dukagjini Klinë
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 8c | 1,274$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Lugano | 44c | 959.84$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.41 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 60c | 846.3$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.01 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Lugano | 72c | 468.64$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FC Lugano | 38c | 300$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed FC Lugano | 40c | 250.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.62 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 5c | 250.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed FC Lugano | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed FC Lugano | 70c | 210.46$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 50c | 199.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 59c | 195.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 60c | 168.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 59c | 165.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FC Lugano | 41c | 146$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…728fbacked FC Lugano | 39c | 126.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 42c | 122.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 29c | 103.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…5cd4backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 63c | 97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 63c | 86.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 60c | 59.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 63c | 41.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Lugano | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed FC Lugano | 58c | 37.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 33c | 36.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 44c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed FC Lugano | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked FC Lugano | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed FC Lugano | 55c | 29.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed FC Lugano | 40c | 28.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked FC Lugano | 69c | 26.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…48cdbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 62c | 20.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed FC Lugano | 61c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)this page
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 5.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.