Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef688a283df29dcd0219a9e359a396a9999c918949f82d57df989dea3f6c9a10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Luganoof FC Lugano, KF Dukagjini Klinë
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Lugano | 22c | 947.83$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.4 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 79c | 916.55$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.07 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Lugano | 67c | 636$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.81 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Lugano | 43c | 457.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.04 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…5631backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 6c | 251.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed FC Lugano | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 68c | 91.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 67c | 73.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Lugano | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 79c | 67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 68c | 61.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 80c | 59.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 503 | 54.7%275 W · 228 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Lugano | 35c | 50.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Lugano | 45c | 45.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed KF Dukagjini Klinë | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked FC Lugano | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked KF Dukagjini Klinë | 68c | 23.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)this page
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: KF Dukagjini Klinë O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: O/U 5.5Over won
- KF Dukagjini Klinë vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.