NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5fdefd7a3acb69e1cad8f13475a8f9cd40e4d1000d670e339552f6bdce2684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Ducks | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,250 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Avalanche | 45c | 11,355$5,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,240.02 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche | 45c | 2,135$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Avalanche | 47c | 1,802$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.86 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Avalanche | 45c | 1,626$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.6 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Ducks | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Avalanche | 46c | 661.56$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.69 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Ducks | 54c | 552.85$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.54 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Avalanche | 47c | 319.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Ducks | 53c | 310$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fce8backed Ducks | 52c | 305.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Ducks | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Avalanche | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Ducks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Avalanche | 60c | 117.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Ducks | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…a3b1backed Ducks | 66c | 60.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…cfd1backed Avalanche | 47c | 50.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Avalanche | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Ducks | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ducks | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Ducks | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Avalanche | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Avalanche | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…238fbacked Avalanche | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Ducks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.