NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa02cde3e248c2ee3df9a9f14b80294b5d2b40aa470bfae6445b2121761e380aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 58c | 17,756$10,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,256.13 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Under | 43c | 9,302$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,302.14 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 42c | 9,017$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,238.81 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 55c | 4,726$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.45 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 3,357$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 2,562$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.91 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 43c | 2,236$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.56 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 44c | 2,211$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.16 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Over | 55c | 2,032$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.39 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 1,145$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.45 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 42c | 1,145$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.45 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 59c | 950.95$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.56 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 623.7$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.64 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 50c | 607.27$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.66 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 570.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.74 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 28c | 464.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 444$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Under | 79c | 316.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Over | 55c | 125.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…c23bbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 55c | 86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…cf74backed Under | 46c | 45.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…8839backed Under | 46c | 44.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…79bfbacked Over | 55c | 43.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…e15fbacked Over | 55c | 42.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…67a7backed Over | 55c | 42.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…2691backed Under | 46c | 41.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…f7f1backed Over | 55c | 38.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…030cbacked Under | 46c | 33.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…1287backed Over | 59c | 33.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…a59abacked Under | 46c | 32.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 42c | 31.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 46c | 28.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…238fbacked Under | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…74b0backed Over | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Ducks vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.