MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Great Britain
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f7f2ae48d4a646ea0ba8a95d97fce889f782e66b8665d4e77df2cf0bafb0632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof USA, Great Britain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Great Britain | 10c | 10,482$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.97 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Great Britain | 7c | 8,027$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.14 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Great Britain | 3c | 6,130$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Great Britain | 2c | 5,398$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Great Britain | 1c | 5,381$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Great Britain | 1c | 4,316$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Great Britain | 2c | 2,450$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Great Britain | 2c | 1,803$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Great Britain | 2c | 1,480$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Great Britain | 2c | 1,256$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Great Britain | 2c | 1,241$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Great Britain | 3c | 1,036$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Great Britain | 5c | 831.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Great Britain | 2c | 764.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Great Britain | 4c | 704.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Great Britain | 3c | 690.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Great Britain | 10c | 680.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Great Britain | 8c | 667.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Great Britain | 5c | 596.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Great Britain | 10c | 574$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Great Britain | 4c | 316.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Great Britain | 6c | 315$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Great Britain | 7c | 275.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Great Britain | 9c | 214.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Great Britain | 7c | 194$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…f72bbacked Great Britain | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Great Britain | 10c | 138$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.