Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f9ad90c26413db0fcb486e9d368bedc01a4933c1f2422caae8f01fd6f05bc70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 73c | 4,614$3,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.26 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 14c | 3,466$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.59 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Over | 26c | 1,898$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 69c | 686.62$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 21c | 553.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 541.78$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Under | 78c | 508$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +198.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 36c | 482.86$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.83 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 467.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 276.83$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 78c | 203.83$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 22c | 181.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 175.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 27c | 175.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 22c | 133.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Over | 26c | 114.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 75c | 108.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ff…879cbacked Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 30c | 96.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Over | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 16c | 77.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 27c | 75.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 38c | 75.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Over | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 73c | 56.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Over | 42c | 35.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 74c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Dinamo City vs. FK Auda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dinamo City (-1.5)FC Dinamo City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.