Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc41f8dcea1541e5d3947cb1fdb7f502a0bbaace63532f59f0a34f5ddbd18b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 560.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 70c | 277.4$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 48c | 273.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 259.54$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 220.03$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 207.33$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 34c | 167.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 67c | 128.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c0…1191backed Yes | 71c | 103.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 47c | 102.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 77c | 80.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 75.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 72.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 71.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 36c | 69.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 59.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 64c | 58.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 64c | 52.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 25c | 52.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 69c | 51.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 44.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 43c | 35.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 30.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 22.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.