Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or higher on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874ab0cac5dac1673537be7afb8f1cbfd0112d1540c470efda2227675efba113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa277…ab9ebacked Yes | 29c | 976.01$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 851.5$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 31c | 575.11$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 15c | 330.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 300.02$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 4c | 289.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 262.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 251.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 229.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 204$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 197.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 190.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 183.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 180.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 34c | 176.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 176$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 162.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…6f79backed Yes | 26c | 145.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 143.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 120.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 104.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 28c | 76.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…f6d2backed Yes | 33c | 76.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 75.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 24c | 66.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 68c | 66.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 31c | 65.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 65.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 63.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…5a02backed No | 62c | 54.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 31c | 53.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 51.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 72c | 50.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…1c53backed Yes | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 30c | 49.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 29c | 43.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 38.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 35c | 33.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 78c | 28.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 19.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…90f0backed No | 63c | 15.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or higher on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.