Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd8b638dfdd4e45dc2f1ece77dbb109a655d3aece3b3199ec221d83fdb4ff68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Alexandrova, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Alexandrova | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Alexandrova | 54c | 2,246$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.88 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Alexandrova | 51c | 2,059$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.05 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Pegula | 32c | 1,915$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.77 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pegula | 52c | 1,786$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.93 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Pegula | 48c | 1,574$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.34 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Pegula | 49c | 1,353$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.8 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pegula | 46c | 1,123$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.64 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714cbacked Alexandrova | 50c | 1,039$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alexandrova | 73c | 1,019$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.52 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Pegula | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Pegula | 48c | 843.22$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.47 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Alexandrova | 60c | 835.83$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pegula | 45c | 651.36$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Pegula | 35c | 500$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Pegula | 43c | 441.23$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.77 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Pegula | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Pegula | 57c | 400.28$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Alexandrova | 76c | 396$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pegula | 37c | 315$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.15 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Alexandrova | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Alexandrova | 54c | 272.46$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Pegula | 29c | 173.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.26 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Alexandrova | 52c | 162.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Alexandrova | 28c | 124.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Pegula | 47c | 108.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Pegula | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Alexandrova | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Pegula | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Pegula | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed Alexandrova | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Pegula | 50c | 61.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Pegula | 65c | 59.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pegula | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Pegula | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Pegula | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Alexandrova | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Pegula | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.