Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1005afd6201ce6b638e541666502ec71e952c018a01c4e5a109806ab31b6fdc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b26…8bfcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 497.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 230.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 198.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 190.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 76c | 171.16$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 25c | 147.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 19c | 147.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…63dbbacked Yes | 39c | 146.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 74c | 134.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 16c | 129.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 78c | 128.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 124.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 22c | 121.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 65c | 121.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 17c | 104.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 31c | 104.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 95.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 76.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 75.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 27c | 74.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked Yes | 34c | 74.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 24c | 74.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 44c | 71.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 65.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 58.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…788bbacked Yes | 18c | 57.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 69c | 53.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…a78fbacked Yes | 31c | 51.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 47.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 34c | 43.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 34c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 68c | 38.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 30c | 33.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 67c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed No | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 79c | 26.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…09abbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 65c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 80c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 75c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 62°F or higher on February 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.