Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100867dbc7766e055c42a6274b74ffbf8c915bf811dc12bc998beb0caab2893d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 37c | 456.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 402.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 47c | 338.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.03 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 305.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 78c | 285.01$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 156.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 46c | 146.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 146.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 135.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 129.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 123$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 121.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 114$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 55c | 104.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 101.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 40c | 98.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 98.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 97.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 91.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 86.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 46c | 82.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 81.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 65c | 67.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 21c | 67.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 48c | 66.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 65.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 42c | 54.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 49.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 48c | 48.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 47c | 48.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 47.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 63c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 40.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 40c | 34.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 37c | 31.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 28.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 35c | 28.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 25.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 54c | 23.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 19.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 52c | 19.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.